How do climate-based pure disasters have an effect on politics? António Valentim presents insights from 4 research featured on the 2025 LSE Competition exhibition.
Analysis by António Valentim is featured on the 2025 LSE Competition exhibition, Visions for the longer term.
As local weather change accelerates, its penalties develop into extra obvious. But, how do political actors and establishments reply when the disaster hits their doorstep? And once they don’t, can residents shift the needle?
At this 12 months’s LSE Competition exhibition, Visions for the longer term, a panel showcases new social science analysis addressing exactly these questions. The 4 papers offered listed here are a part of that panel and concentrate on completely different levels of political response to local weather change – from elite (in)motion to celebration responsiveness and grassroots mobilisation.
Excessive climate occasions don’t improve political events’ environmental consideration
Opposite to expectations, European political events largely fail to reply to excessive climate occasions by growing their consideration to environmental points. This examine, which I printed with Tim Wappenhans, Heike Klüver and Lukas Stoetzer, analyses over 260,000 press releases from 68 political events throughout 9 international locations (2010-2020). It combines a difference-in-differences design with supervised studying algorithms to trace modifications in climate-related communication to check whether or not lethal excessive climate occasions (akin to floods, wildfires, storms and heatwaves) lead political events to speak extra about environmental points.
We discover that solely Inexperienced events exhibit a short-lived improve in local weather messaging, normally simply within the week of the occasion. All different events, throughout ideological households and institutional roles (authorities or opposition), present no constant change of their consideration to environmental subjects. This discovering challenges the intuitive perception that as local weather impacts develop into extra tangible, political elites and coverage will naturally observe.
Inexperienced events typically fail to capitalise on climate-based emergencies
However what in regards to the events more than likely to profit from local weather salience? On this paper, I zoom in on the English Inexperienced Get together to ask a extra targeted query: when local weather points develop into electorally salient, particularly after flooding, do Inexperienced events strategically allocate extra candidates in affected areas to capitalise on this?
As a result of the Greens are the difficulty house owners on environmental points and might be seen as a distinct segment or smaller celebration on this context that would profit from grievances towards incumbents, they’re more likely to profit from floods. Utilizing geospatial information on floods and survey information, I take a look at whether or not that is the case, exhibiting that floods do improve the salience of environmental points and make voters penalise the incumbent. I then take a look at whether or not the Greens reply to those occasions by allocating extra candidates to those affected areas.
Whereas floods do seem to affect voters (they elevate the salience of local weather change and so they improve protest voting), the Inexperienced Get together doesn’t reply by fielding extra candidates in affected areas. Utilizing information on marketing campaign expenditure and interviews with celebration insiders, I counsel that smaller events typically function with restricted info and sources, which could constrain their potential to answer voters. The Inexperienced Get together doesn’t have the sources to gather info on voters’ preferences or doesn’t prioritise doing so.
My findings complicate the usual mannequin of rational celebration responsiveness, suggesting that even when local weather politics turns into electorally advantageous, institutional and informational constraints can forestall significant elite adaptation.
Local weather protests can affect voters
Whereas the primary two papers spotlight the boundaries of elite responsiveness, this third examine turns the highlight onto residents by asking whether or not local weather protests can affect electoral outcomes. I look at the Fridays for Future (FFF) local weather protests to look at their impression on elections, arguing {that a} key attribute of efficient protests is their potential to repeatedly expose voters to their message.
Utilizing a novel dataset of Fridays for Future protests and municipal election leads to Germany, I exploit a difference-in-differences design, discovering that publicity to Fridays for Future protests elevated vote share for the German Greens, particularly when the protests had been repeated.
The impact seems to be pushed by elevated voter turnout and modifications in local weather attitudes (notably amongst those that are much less taken with politics), fairly than problem salience alone. Importantly, the findings replicate throughout six different European international locations, however to not different pro-environmental behaviours, akin to bicycle commuting. This contributes to a rising physique of proof that nonviolent, repeated protest can affect electoral behaviour, which could profit events which are perceived as competent on the difficulty.
Local weather shocks can change who runs for workplace
Increasing the lens past Europe, the ultimate examine, which I carried out with Guilherme Fasolin, investigates how floods have an effect on candidate entry in Brazilian mayoral elections. Whereas most analysis thinks of those occasions as a chance for voters to find out about local weather change, we construct on work from throughout the social and pure sciences that present these occasions have vital socio-economic penalties.
Particularly, we examine whether or not excessive climate occasions change the composition of political candidates, doubtlessly exacerbating or attenuating pre-existing inequalities. Utilizing a novel dataset of flooding occasions and mayoral candidates in Brazil (2000-2020), we make use of a difference-in-differences design to evaluate the impression of floods on the demographic composition of the mayoral candidate pool.
Usually, we discover that floods scale back the common age and academic attainment of political candidates. Utilizing information on federal transfers, corruption audits, surveys and elite interviews, we present the results on training might be pushed by rent-seeking and out of doors choices, while mobilisation and recruitment patterns drive the age results. This examine means that local weather shocks can change who turns into a politician, notably the younger and people with much less formal training, who are likely to take part in politics at a lot decrease charges.
Be aware: This text provides the views of the creator, not the place of EUROPP – European Politics and Coverage or the London College of Economics. Featured picture credit score: Vicente Sargues / Shutterstock.com
