Why are “tradition wars” distinguished in some European international locations however not in others? In new analysis, Tadeas Cely finds roots for these divides in historic divergence embedded in non secular cultures.
The time period “tradition wars” (Kulturkampf) was famously first utilized by Otto von Bismarck to explain a wrestle for affect with the Catholic Church (1871-1878). At the moment, points similar to schooling, civil marriage and, to a lesser extent, matters like cremation had been on the forefront.
Right now, we nonetheless hear about tradition wars, with matters starting from LGBTQ+ rights in Madrid to debates over strict abortion insurance policies in Poland. Such points are generally championed by politicians, like Éric Zemmour in France, dividing public opinion and fuelling intense battle. Nonetheless, these conflicts seem in some contexts greater than others. This raises an vital query: by which international locations is public opinion divided on morality points, quite than on questions associated to self-interest (similar to financial points)?
Public opinion polarisation
In a brand new research, I search to reply this query by taking a look at public opinion polarisation. Once I discuss with public opinion polarisation, I imply the extent to which disagreements on points inside a selected area will be condensed right into a single ideological dimension of battle. Moreover, I additionally take a look at associations between opinions and ideological identities.
It’s vital to tell apart this from polarisation on particular person morality points, as this strategy is extra strong and fewer delicate to frequent shifts in political agendas. Polarisation measures are calculated as the typical correlation between two comparable opinion vectors (similar to opinions on two morality points) inside a particular context. On this evaluation, I take advantage of a simplified strategy by subtracting polarisation on financial points from that on morality points to focus on variations in disagreement.
Which publics are divided on what?
Utilizing European Values Examine surveys, I give attention to how disagreements differ throughout European international locations (1990-2017). We’d look forward to finding variations between much less developed and extra developed international locations, given the so referred to as “post-materialism thesis” that states that as societies attain greater ranges of financial prosperity, they’re extra prone to shift their priorities away from materials wants.
We additionally would possibly look forward to finding variations associated to faith. In some European international locations, there has traditionally been a church-state cleavage centring on clashes over secularisation, which had been significantly pronounced in predominantly Catholic international locations and nearly absent in predominantly Protestant ones. These conflicts persist in beliefs and perceptions that additionally have an effect on non-religious individuals. My findings counsel these deep imprints from non secular cultures do certainly persist in the present day throughout Europe.
Total, my evaluation produced three clear findings. First, public opinion on morality points is extra aligned inside Catholic international locations than in Protestant international locations, with difficulty alignment being 40% greater and ideological id alignment 90% greater in Catholic international locations.
Second, on financial points, the sample is reversed. Inside Catholic international locations, difficulty alignment is 50% decrease and ideological id alignment is 70% decrease than in Protestant international locations. Third, there’s a disappearing East-West divide. Though extra developed international locations had been considerably extra aligned on morality points than much less developed international locations in 1990, these identical international locations had been barely much less aligned on these points in 2017.
The significance of non secular cultures
The sample I discover can’t be defined by variations in improvement. As an alternative, it aligns with the divergence between Catholic and Protestant non secular traditions. For example, contemplate the distinction between Catholic Poland or Austria and predominantly agnostic Czechia or Germany, which have combined non secular traditions.
Total, Catholic international locations in Japanese, Southern, and (to a lesser extent) Western Europe are on the forefront of the morality-based opinion divide. In distinction, public opinion on these points in Nordic international locations is extra fragmented, with financial points as a substitute showing to cluster opinions extra strongly. To visualise this sample, I’ve plotted aggregated outcomes over time in Determine 1.
Determine 1: Polarisation on morality-economic points in Europe (1990-2017)
Notice: The map reveals the extent to which a society is extra polarised on morality quite than financial points. A better quantity signifies extra polarisation on morality points. For extra data see the writer’s accompanying paper in European Union Politics.
Second, I tackle the priority that secularisation and the rise of religiously unaffiliated respondents is perhaps weakening these variations over time. Right here, I focus solely on public opinion polarisation concerning morality points, with the measure starting from 0 to 1. Determine 2 is predicated on multi-level fashions with various intercepts (international locations) and slopes (time). In the primary paper, I present a way more detailed account of this argument, describing polarisation inside particular person international locations and its change over time.
Determine 2: Polarisation throughout contexts and beginning cohorts
Notice: For extra data see the writer’s accompanying paper in European Union Politics.
My findings present there are substantial variations within the points over which we’re divided. Some could ask, nonetheless, why we don’t see important battle over these points in all Catholic international locations. The reply is that public disagreement over morality points is a obligatory however inadequate situation for “tradition wars” to happen: though the general public could also be divided, there is perhaps restricted consideration paid to those points.
Tradition conflict narratives could emerge the place mass opinion will not be deeply polarised, but sure subpopulations really feel strongly (as in Hungary). Conversely, it might be absent in some Catholic international locations of Western Europe, the place, regardless of social divides on cultural issues, political leaders don’t exploit these points. Nonetheless, as I present right here, societies with Catholic non secular traditions have a context significantly ripe for such exploitation.
For extra data, see the writer’s accompanying paper in European Union Politics.
Notice: This text offers the views of the writer, not the place of EUROPP – European Politics and Coverage or the London Faculty of Economics. Featured picture credit score: BreizhAtao / Shutterstock.com
