The UK and the EU have reached settlement on a post-Brexit “reset” to their relationship. Mitya Pearson and David Jeffery write that whereas there may be help within the UK for establishing nearer relations with the EU, there are main political obstacles to taking extra bold steps like rejoining the one market.
Following the UK-EU summit on Monday, Britain is transferring nearer to the EU once more in a number of particular areas. Inevitably, such strikes usually are not far sufficient for some, who want to see a way more radical alignment between Britain and the EU. So why does the concept of Britain rejoining the customs union, single market and even the EU itself at the moment appear so unlikely to occur?
Help for rejoining
British politics is in one thing of a paradoxical scenario in relation to public and elite opinion in regards to the UK’s ongoing relationship with Europe. After Britain voted for Brexit in 2016, voters got here to have an overwhelmingly adverse evaluation of how the UK authorities had dealt with the negotiations and, as soon as the deal had been signed, they have been additionally fairly sceptical about what had been achieved.
Within the years since Britain left the EU, polling has proven that the general public are inclined to assume the influence of Brexit has been adverse throughout a spread of areas and there was a largely constant polling lead for the concept of rejoining the EU (versus staying out) since 2022. Since 2021, surveys have additionally repeatedly proven Britons, on stability, really feel that it was incorrect to go away the EU.
All of the main figures within the present Labour authorities supported stay within the 2016 EU referendum. We performed polling of Westminster MPs elected on the 2024 basic election, as a part of a just lately printed report, and located {that a} clear majority of them would vote to rejoin the EU if there was one other referendum on the difficulty. MPs have been considerably extra supportive of this place than the general public (who additionally favoured the concept of rejoining when requested the identical query, at the same time).
Reopening divisions
There are, nonetheless, a number of highly effective the reason why a partial or full reversal of the Brexit course of seems to be unlikely within the close to time period, although politicians and the general public favour the concept. Whereas public opinion surveys present total help for rejoining the EU, there isn’t any proof that this can be a salient concern. The EU doesn’t characteristic among the many high ten points dealing with the nation, as chosen by the general public, in Ipsos’ March 2025 Problem Index. Simply as the difficulty didn’t characteristic in the identical index when David Cameron initially introduced the plan to have an EU referendum.
Throughout the Brexit negotiation course of, there was a widespread sense of public frustration and by late 2019, 70% of voters urged that they had “Brexit fatigue”. Politicians might due to this fact be cautious of a possible backlash amongst voters if they’re seen to be re-opening a divisive episode in British politics.
The polling outcomes talked about right here primarily requested politicians and voters in regards to the thought of rejoining the EU in precept. If the coverage implications of concrete choices for a significant softening of Britain’s EU relations, akin to accepting freedom of motion, have been extra extensively mentioned, they may begin to appear much less engaging. The interval since Britain left the EU has additionally coincided with difficult financial situations, so the general public’s views on Brexit are little doubt partly sure up with these, and in the event that they have been to vary, attitudes to EU membership might too.
Political calculations
When Keir Starmer took over as chief of the Labour Social gathering, a part of the method he took to recovering from the 2019 basic election defeat was to just accept that Brexit was occurring and search to maneuver on from a debate that had alienated a major part of Labour’s voters. This fundamental calculation has continued to form the get together’s method, at the same time as public opinion proof on what British voters consider Brexit has began to recommend that politicians might not have to be so cautious about being vital of Brexit.
Moreover, lately, British political elites have turn out to be very centered on fairly a slender set of voters: older, non-graduates residing outdoors large cities who had a bent to help Brexit in 2016. It’s because voters with such traits are distributed fairly effectively throughout constituencies (whereas graduates who supported stay are extra concentrated in seats in large cities), and since vital numbers of such voters have switched between the Conservative and Labour events in methods which have been very influential in latest basic elections.
A majority of the group of voters who voted Conservative in 2019 and Labour in 2024 supported depart within the 2016 referendum. The group of voters who voted Labour in 2024 however are actually expressing (through surveys) openness to voting Reform in a future election are extra socially conservative than different Labour voters (a trait related to supporting depart).
Labour’s want to carry onto such voters on the subsequent basic election is more likely to proceed to imply they’re nervous about managing Britain’s relationship with the EU. For these causes, at the moment, the political situations don’t appear conducive for a extra bold reset of UK-EU relations.
For extra info, see the authors’ accompanying examine, What do British Politicians Suppose?
Word: This text provides the views of the authors, not the place of EUROPP – European Politics and Coverage or the London College of Economics. Featured picture credit score: European Union
