On June 1st, Polish voters rendered a fateful resolution within the presidential election. Karol Nawrocki, a former hooligan and a historian with no prior political expertise and the candidate of the right-wing Regulation and Justice celebration (PiS), narrowly defeated Rafał Trzaskowski, the pro-European mayor of Warsaw supported by Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition, securing 50.89% of the vote to Trzaskowski’s 49.11%. Nawrocki’s victory carries profound implications for Poland’s home trajectory, the place hopes for reforms corresponding to liberalising the draconian abortion legislation, recognising partnerships for LGBTQ+ {couples}, or restoring judicial independence have now dimmed. Furthermore, regardless of what some commentators have argued, the brand new president would possibly properly pose a menace for the European Union. Because the EU grapples with the erosion of its longstanding transatlantic alliance, Russia’s conflict in opposition to Ukraine, and the resurgence of populism, it has now witnessed the primary electoral triumph inside its borders of a frontrunner intently aligned with the MEGA (Make Europe Nice Once more) motion.
Presidential competences in poland: guardian or gatekeeper?
Beneath the Polish Structure of 1997, the President is vested with important but primarily balancing powers throughout the constitutional framework. Whereas the President doesn’t conduct day-to-day governance, they maintain essential veto energy over laws (Article 122(5)), requiring a three-fifths majority of votes within the presence of at the very least half of all deputies within the Sejm to override (Article 122(5)). The President additionally has the best to provoke constitutional overview by referring statutes to the Constitutional Tribunal earlier than signing them into legislation (Article 122(3)). Moreover, the President workouts affect over the judiciary appointing judges to the Supreme Courtroom, Constitutional Tribunal (on his personal movement for the latter), and different courts on the movement of the Nationwide Council of the Judiciary (Articles 179, 194(1)).
In international coverage, whereas the Council of Ministers leads negotiations (Article 146(4)(9)), the President ratifies and denounces worldwide agreements (Article 133(1)(1)) and represents Poland in worldwide relations (Article 133). Critically, the President serves because the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces (Article 134(1)) and may introduce a state of emergency in particular circumstances (Article 230). These competences grant the President some extent of energy over each home and international affairs, from shaping judicial appointments to influencing the nation’s worldwide relations. In issues of international coverage, the President’s powers to ratify worldwide agreements and characterize Poland overseas present a platform to claim strategic narratives and affect the nation’s stance throughout the European Union and NATO, particularly in intervals of political polarisation. Notably, the President possesses the authority to veto laws, together with payments geared toward implementing EU legislation. Moreover, the President leads Poland’s delegation at NATO summits, taking part in discussions that form the alliance’s instructions.
Exporting Populism
Nawrocki’s ascent has been facilitated, in no small half, by overt assist from Donald Trump and his entourage – an rising sample of American right-wing involvement in European electoral politics. In Might, Nawrocki travelled to Washington, the place {a photograph} alongside Trump within the Oval Workplace was extensively interpreted as a de facto endorsement. Simply days earlier than the election, Poland hosted its first-ever Conservative Political Motion Convention (CPAC), at which U.S. Secretary of Homeland Safety Kristi Noem provided additional assist, proclaiming: “Donald Trump is a robust chief for us, however you’ve gotten a possibility to have simply as sturdy of a frontrunner in Karol for those who make him the chief of this nation.” An identical dynamic might quickly play out within the Czech Republic, the place former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš’s populist celebration at the moment leads within the polls.
The affinity between Nawrocki and Trump’s circle is not any coincidence. The brand new Polish president shares the worldview articulated by U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance on the Munich Safety Convention earlier this 12 months,which solid mass migration, free speech, and “values” as principal threats to Western civilisation. In lending their assist to Nawrocki, Trump and his allies goal to additional destabilise and weaken the European Union, thereby undermining the worldwide liberal order. As Slavoj Žižek has warned, “for Europe, the precept at stake is unconditional constancy to the Enlightenment legacy”.
In keeping with a 2010 ruling of the Polish Constitutional Tribunal (Ok 32/09), the president and the prime minister share overlapping constitutional powers to characterize Poland in EU affairs, necessitating coordination between them. Though the president doesn’t formally direct international coverage, Nawrocki shall be well-positioned to steer Poland’s European engagement with narrative framing and strategic vetoes. The President holds the constitutional authority to veto parliamentary payments, together with these implementing EU legislation, requiring a three-fifths majority within the Sejm to override the veto thereby giving him important leverage over the federal government’s European agenda.
His declared Euroscepticism, aversion to deeper integration, and distance from EU establishments stand in stark distinction to the course charted by Tusk’s authorities because it took workplace in late 2023. Throughout his marketing campaign Nawrocki mentioned that „Poland doesn’t want a centralised state populated by EU residents of Polish origin”. Though the federal government holds sole duty for shaping international relations, statements like this from the President can affect public sentiment and gas anti-EU attitudes amongst voters.
On the difficulty of migration, President-elect Karol Nawrocki – whereas not essentially opposing Tusk’s strategy – is anticipated to undertake much more hardline rhetoric, emphasizing nationwide sovereignty and safety. Since 2023 Tusk has carried out stringent migration insurance policies, together with suspending asylum rights on the Belarus borderand tightening laws for international college students and financial migrants, aiming to “regain management” over migration and improve nationwide safety. In Might 2025, he joined eight different European leaders in calling for a reconsideration of the European Conference on Human Rights because it pertains to migration. The leaders expressed considerations that the ECHR’s present interpretations hinder nationwide governments’ talents to handle irregular migration and expel international nationals who commit crimes.
Nawrocki’s election additionally casts an extended shadow over the longer term disbursement of Subsequent Era EU funds. After the victory of the pro-democratic coalition in 2023, these funds have been unblocked on the premise of the plan to revive the rule of legislation, which was critically undermined throughout PiS rule between 2015 and 2023. The success of this plan relied on Trzaskowski profitable the latest presidential elections and, because the President, siging the mandatory payments. Nawrocki is anticipated to observe within the footsteps of his predecessor, Andrzej Duda, vetoing legislative efforts to deal with these deficiencies. Whereas the European Fee has maintained cautious optimism about future cooperation, the continuation of fund disbursements would possibly now dangle within the stability. Continuing with funds might expose the Fee to accusations of political inconsistency, whereas withholding them dangers alienating a frontline member state bordering Ukraine and fuelling anti-EU sentiment – fertile floor for PiS chief Jarosław Kaczyński within the run-up to the 2027 parliamentary elections.
Along with EU coverage, Nawrocki’s presidency might weaken Poland’s hitherto unwavering assist for Ukraine. As underlined earlier than, in Poland, it’s historically the president who represents the nation at NATO summits, not the prime minister. His scepticism in the direction of NATO enlargement, echoing Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s stance, threaten to fracture the Western entrance in opposition to Kremlin aggression. That is notably troubling given the uncertainty surrounding future U.S. international coverage.
Nawrocki’s victory comes at a second when Europe is striving to reassert itself on the worldwide stage. Tusk had labored diligently to place Poland as a pillar of an rising management triangle with Germany and France. Till Sunday, he stood because the principal architect of this alignment. Now, with Nawrocki’s win, Tusk’s authorities finds itself politically wounded. The prime minister has known as for a vote of confidence to be held on 11 June, whereas on the identical time, President Emmanuel Macron is scuffling with home instability, and Chancellor Friedrich Merz, newly inaugurated, continues to be discovering his footing. These developments might in the end serve to advance Russia’s efforts to destabilize the European Union.
Nawrocki’s First Steps Towards Independence?
Andrzej Duda, concerning his relationship with Regulation and Justice chief Jarosław Kaczyński, aligned with Kaczyński’s directives all through his tenure. In contrast, based on rumours, Nawrocki has already demonstrated a level of private independence. Notably, he reportedly declined Kaczyński’s proposal to nominate former Sejm Marshal Marek Kuchciński to a place throughout the Presidential Chancellery. Nawrocki appointed his personal shut allies, notably two long-time associates from the Institute of Nationwide Remembrance (IPN), Leśkiewicz and Dębowski, whose political loyalty and usefulness have been by no means vetted via PiS’s inner channels. It marks a big departure from the Regulation and Justice celebration tradition. These early indicators would possibly recommend that Nawrocki might not function a mere extension of PiS management, indicating a possible shift within the dynamic between the presidency and the celebration.
Nevertheless, this independence seems largely tactical reasonably than ideological. Nawrocki is anticipated to align intently with the core tenets of Regulation and Justice (PiS), together with a Eurosceptic stance, a robust pro-U.S. orientation, and a readiness to dam key authorities initiatives via his veto energy. His political base additionally suggests a attainable shift even additional to the best. His victory within the second spherical depended closely on voters who had supported far-right candidates Grzegorz Braun and Sławomir Mentzen within the first, indicating stress to accommodate extra radical, nationalist components. Consequently, whereas his type might differ and his relationship with PiS management could also be much less deferential than Duda’s, Nawrocki’s substantive insurance policies are more likely to reinforce, and doubtlessly intensify, the conservative-populist agenda that has dominated Polish politics over the previous decade.
Though Nawrocki’s election doesn’t mark the fruits of the battle within the EU between pro-democratic and populist forces, it represents a big advance for the latter. His victory was slender–by roughly 400,000 votes–however with 10,440,648 votes, he secured the very best tally for any candidate because the 1990 election of Lech Wałęsa, the chief of the anti-Communist Solidarity motion. Whereas the margin could also be slim, his mandate is strong, and the concepts he espouses command appreciable assist inside Polish society.
